A conversation about civil war in 2024
A good faith discussion
🗨 All right, I’ve got a question for you this time. You usually ask me all the questions, but now it’s my turn.
💬 Go for it. I’m all ears.
đź—¨ Why are some in this country so obsessed with civil war all of a sudden? Not The Civil War where the many Southern states seceded because they wanted to continue enslaving people, but some kind of unlikely new 2024 civil war?
💬 Yeah, I’ve seen a lot of commentary about the possibilities of another civil war. I don’t really know who exactly started it, and I don’t really know if I can say anything useful about why “people” in general are talking about it.
🗨 That’s fair. So how about this question: what do you think? Is America heading for another civil war in the near future?
💬 Oh interesting question. Well, let’s say worry is on a scale from 0–10, with 0 being “I think about it as much as I think about the sun exploding someday” to 10 being “I’m currently packing my camping gear to go hide in the mountains until it’s over.”
🗨 You’re weird.
💬 On that scale, I’m probably a 6 or a 7.
🗨 Seriously? No way — that high? I’m probably at about a 1. Maybe a 2 if I’m really tired and have been watching cable news for too long that day.
💬 I get that. And honestly, I’m probably not talking about a whole-nation war like the war of southern defense of slavery. I guess I’m more concerned by violent subversion of American Democracy.
🗨 So, that’s not really a civil war. I mean the January 6th coup attempt wasn’t a civil war, was it?
💬 No, and that’s a good point. That was violence with the goal of taking power and overturning the will of the people. But I wouldn’t really call that a civil war.
đź—¨ Right. So are we talking about another coup or a full on civil war?
💬 Well, I’m concerned about both, especially that the former might lead to the latter. It’s tough. I don’t want to think it’s possible, but I see experts who believe that a new civil war in America is not that outlandish. Like this CIA researcher who worked on a task force predicting civil wars internationally:
🗨 But I mean c’mon, that’s so unlikely isn’t it? Isn’t this a bit Chicken Little-ish?
💬 Haha. You know how that movie ended, don’t you :) Also, did you watch that video with the CIA expert I just shared? Civil wars are extremely unlikely right up until they happen. In other words, a few months before a civil war starts it’s not like people in that country are saying to each other “wow, we’re definitely going to have a civil war.”
đź—¨ Okay, I get that. But politics in this country have always been divisive. The left likes to pretend that Donald Trump is some kind of demon, but all politicians are divisive all the time.
💬 But you realize, don’t you, that Trump is different?
đź—¨ How?
đź’¬ Can you think of another losing presidential candidate in American history who led an armed insurrection to overturn his loss?
🗨 Candidates who lose always complain about the election. That’s a time-honored tradition.
💬 Oof. First off, I’m not talking about “complaining about the election.” I’m talking about leading a coordinated campaign across multiple states to overturn the will of the people, culminating in an armed insurrection in which a hostile force invaded the halls of Congress for the first time in American history. Sure, Al Gore asked for a recount in Florida to make sure all the ballots were counted correctly. But after the courts weighed in, he accepted the results graciously (and with a grand total of . . . zero armed insurrections!).
🗨 Okay, sure. But you’re forgetting a key part of January 6th.
💬 What’s that?
đź—¨ It failed. The American system prevailed. Stop whining and obsessing over Trump and move on already.
💬 Do you want to know how many coups are successful? From 1950–2010 there were approximately 450 coups documented worldwide. Right around 50% were successful in violently taking power.
đź—¨ And how many of those happened in the USA?
💬 0, of course. But don’t you think it’s at least possible that Trump’s supporters might consider staging a coup again in 2024 if he loses? That would raise the number of Trump coups to two, and statistically speaking . . . .
🗨 It’s possible, but really unlikely.
💬 Here’s where I’m coming from. While in office, President Trump ignored the laws and norms that govern the Presidency. It wasn’t just that he wrote mean tweets, he also undermined the foundation of the executive branch of the US government.
When he lost, as we’ve discussed earlier, he tried to overturn the results of that election because he didn’t agree with them.
Since leaving office, he has continued to spread lies about the 2020 election.
In laying out plans for his second term as president, he has been very clear about what type of president he would be. He’s praised dictators, staffed his campaign with extremists, and repeatedly explained his plans for being a dictator in his second term. He is stirring up his supporters for retribution and revenge, and laying out exactly which levers of presidential power he’d use to punish those he dislikes. People from his own party and people who worked in his administration the first time around are raising the alarm, over and over and over and over again.
As if to prove them all right, Trump’s 2024 campaign has engaged in increasingly dark and violent speech, explicitly calling for direct violence against those who oppose him. And this violent rhetoric is trickling down through the right wing media ecosystem in pretty concerning ways.
🗨 I don’t think I’d ever seen all that laid out in one place before.
💬 Picture kids in 50 years, reading all that stuff about Trump in their history books. His violent history in politics, his attempted coup, his violent rhetoric, his authoritarian campaign. And then they turn the page and read about how something terrible happened in 2024. Something violent and destructive. Maybe even a civil war. Do you think those kids will say “wow, what a surprise. No way they could’ve seen that coming?”
🗨 Everything is clearer in hindsight. Isn’t that what your CIA expert said?
đź’¬ True true. I guess the question is, do we listen to that CIA civil war expert and take the threat seriously, or do we wait until hindsight is all we have?
đź—¨ Well, even in your scenario the kids in 50 years have history textbooks, so something must have gone okay between now and then right?
đź’¬ Yeah, I guess so. Well, I hope that answered your question at least a little bit.
đź—¨ It did, thanks for talking me through it. Talk to you later!
